|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
The Value Added Monthly Index (VAMI) measures the performance of a hypothetical investment of $1,000 over time. Starting out at $1,000, its value is added to each month by an amount equal to the monthly percent return. Essentially, it measures the effect of compounding your returns. The VAMI is useful as it allows you to easily measure one service against another as both begin from the same starting point ($1,000).
The main graph on this page shows the VAMI for the service verses the VAMI for the particular benchmark over the selected time period. The benchmark defaults to the S&P 500 or, if the service tracks an index, to that index. You can select a different benchmark from the dropdown list. To compare the service with another one, select the second service from the drop down box and click Compare. It will then overlay that service’s VAMI onto the chart. You can compare up to nine different services at once. To do this, choose how many services to compare: 1-3, 4-6 or 7-9. You can also select a different time period by clicking on the appropriate button. When you do, the results for the service, the benchmark and any compared services are recalculated and displayed for that period, so you can accurately compare the performance of one with the other. The percentage annual return is based on the change in value of the VAMI. The value of the VAMI begins with a hypothetical $1,000 investment. This amount is then compounded using the service's monthly returns from January through to December. The actual percentage change in the value of the VAMI from one year to another (effectively, from the December value of the previous year to the latest value in the current year) gives the Annual Return of the service. The annual returns for both the service and the benchmark are shown on the second graph. When you select a different benchmark from the drop down list, the Annual Returns are displayed for that benchmark. The values in the data-box at the bottom are the source data for the graphs. The top row (for both the service and the benchmark) shows the ending VAMI amount for each year, while the second row shows the percentage change from one year to the next. And just below the data-box is the Annualized Return for the current year. This is the annual return that the service could be expected to make if it maintains the same rate of performance for the rest of the year that it has achieved to date.
The Monthly Returns show the net percentage return achieved by the service for each calendar month it has traded. First, the return for each trade is determined - this is the percentage profit achieved on the trade. The dollar return is then worked out based on the current trading profile, which determines how many contracts or shares would have been traded. These amounts are then totalled to give a gross return. The net dollar return is the gross return minus brokerage and subscription fees. Knowing this allows for the calculation of the percentage return per month, which is the net return relative to the initial trading bank.
The graph at the top shows each monthly return for the life of the service. Below that, each year is then displayed (please note that the yearly graphs are on different scales). And in the data-box at the bottom, the raw data for each of the graphs is displayed, showing the net percentage return for each trading month. If a cell is blank, it means that no return was achieved for that month. This does not mean that any data is missing – only that there were no trades closed in that particular month so no return was registered.
The Reinvestment Trading Strategy calculates the amount you would have made using this service if you had reinvested your profits, while the Income Trading Strategy calculates your net cash profit per month.
To use the calculator, first enter your default trading profile in the section at the top of the page and press "Calculate". This will enter the details of your trading profile into the strategy section below, as well as calculate the result of the Income Trading Strategy. This is your anticipated cash profit per month after brokerage and subscription fees have been deducted. To calculate the results of the Reinvestment Trading Strategy, first enter your Investment Period (in months) into the box just below the main menu. Second, decide if you want to use the standard Monthly Compound Rate of Return or the Risk Adjusted Rate of Return and then press Update. Your ending capital is then calculated for you. This is a net figure minus all your trading costs.
The Winning/Losing Months chart shows the winning and losing months stacked atop each other for each year the service has been operating.
The % Winning Months per Year gives you the percentage of winning months the service has achieved on a yearly basis. The Winning Months for Life of Service pie chart shows the total number of winning months verses the total number of losing months the service has achieved in its life. The Monthly CROR chart shows three different parameters. First, it gives the Monthly Compound Rate of Return. This is the actual rate of return you would have achieved had you used the service, and is therefore a key statistic. It is calculated such that, if $1,000 were compounded each month by this rate for a period equal to the number of months the service has traded, the result would equal the current VAMI figure. The second measure is the Standard Deviation. This measures the degree by which the monthly return figures deviate from the mean (or average) Monthly Return. It is therefore a measure of volatility (or risk) of the monthly return results. Lastly, we have the Risk Adjusted CROR. In calculating the Monthly CROR, it is important to remember that it is a "smoothed" figure which can give the illusion that there is a steady growth rate in the value of your investment. In trading, nothing could be further from the truth as it can be extremely volatile. To get a true picture of what would have happened, you need to take this volatility (or risk) into account. That is what the Risk Adjusted Monthly CROR does.
The Sharpe ratio is a risk-adjusted financial measure developed by Nobel Laureate William Sharpe. It compares a service's return (that is, any return in excess of what is deemed to be the Risk Free rate of return) to a specific measure of risk, in this instance the standard deviation. The Risk Free ROR used in our calculations is 5%/annum.
The Sortino Ratio is also a risk-adjusted ratio, this time measuring reward verses the downside deviation (or semi-deviation) rather than the full standard deviation as used in the Sharpe Ratio. Like the Sharpe and Sortino ratios, the Sterling ratio is also a risk-adjusted financial measure. It differs from them in that it uses the Maximum Drawdown as its measure of risk. For all three of these measures, the higher value the better. The Ulcer Index is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns (measured by percent), and was developed as an alternative to the Sharpe Ratio. The greater the drawdowns and the longer it takes to recover from them the higher the Index, so in this case a low value is preferred. The Ulcer Performance Index is similar to the Sharpe Ratio in that it compares excess risk to return, but in this case it divides that excess by the Ulcer Index instead of the Standard Deviation. The Profit Factor is a measure of gains verses losses, and is calculated by dividing the profits generated from winning trades by the losses accumulated from losing trades. A value of 2, for example, would indicate that twice as much money was made from winning trades as was lost on losing trades. The Trade Performance Index (TPI) assesses a service's trade performance irrespective of other issues such as bank size or percentage risk. It looks specifically at the return a service achieves on its trades using a standard bank of $10,000. The Value for Money Index (VMI) is an extension of the Trade Performance Index and measures the relative value a subscriber gets for their monthly subscription fee and, in doing so, answers the question, "Where is my subscription dollar best spent?" The Top Trader Index is an overall measure of a service's performance. It looks at 19 different aspects of the way a service trades and assess each out of a score of 20. The highest score, therefore, is 380.
The Range of Monthly Results shows the highest and lowest returns for each month the service has been operating.
The Largest Monthly Gain & Loss chart shows two parameters. The first shows the largest single one month gain that the service has achieved in its lifetime while the second shows the largest single one month loss. In the rare cases where a service has had no monthly losses, it is the smallest monthly gain. The Drawdowns chart shows you the frequency and size of the drawdowns on your trading capital that you would have experienced trading this service. The unit used to measure the loss is the VAMI, and the measurement is taken from the top of the particular move (the time when the losing trade/s began) to its bottom (the time when the next profitable trade happened). Basically, it tells you what percentage of your bank would have been lost before you began to recoup that loss. The smaller bar graphs to the side show give you the Maximum Drawdown as both a dollar value and a percentage. Downside Deviation measures downside volatility against a predetermined Minimum Acceptable Return (MAR). The MAR used in our calculations is 5%/annum or 0.42%/month. The Downside Deviation is a measure of the degree to which the service's results have deviated from that level of return, but only on the downside. In other words, it doesn't measure positive performance, only returns that are LESS than the MAR.
Av Investment/Trade is the average dollar investment that the service makes. In other words, this is what you could reasonably expect to have to invest each time you entered the market if you wanted to replicate the service's results.
Av Brokerage/Trade is the average brokerage you would have paid each time you traded. This gives you some idea of what your costs will be in order to replicate the service's results though, as all our results are net, brokerage has already been taken into account. Av $ Return per Trade is the average dollar return achieved by the service. Av Shares (or Contracts)/Trade is the number of shares the service either buys or sells (depending on whether they trade either long or short) each time they enter the market. Av Trades/Month tells you how many trades each month the service usually does. This will tell you how actively they trade and, therefore, what market action you can expect from them. The Strike Rate measures how successful the service is at picking winning trades. The % Return/Trade is how much the service makes, on average, each time it makes a trade. This includes both winners and losers. Av Wins/Year is the number of winning trades the service executes per calendar year. Av Gain/Winning Trade gives you the average profit the service has made on all its winning trades. Av Loss/Losing Trade is the average loss the service has made on all its losing trades. Av Cost/Trade is the average cost per share (or option) that the service traded, either short or long. If they are options, you would then need to multiply that number by 100 to give you the actual cost of the position. Open Positions is the number of positions that the service holds open at any one time. This is measured in the Trading Profiles section under Coverage. In order to be able to replicate a service’s results, you need to be able to hold all their open positions. Av Days/Trade tells you how long the service stays in the market for each trade.
The Summary page gives you all the results for the service on one page so you can see them at a glance. As with the charting data these results also recalculate as you change your trading profile. As well, we provide additional information about the service, in particular, their subscription options, whether they have a free trial or not and if they autotrade.
|



